Our Senior Form Analyst Jamie Lynch on every confirmed runner in Saturday’s renewal of the world’s oldest Classic, the St Leger, live on Sky Sports Racing.
More than just a race, the Betfred St Leger at 3.40pm on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Racing, has a fundamental function as one of racing’s great roundabouts, connecting the Classics, a focus for the finer form-lines in the seasonal structure, and the end of one road but also the start of a new one.
Even the last two renewals, seen by some as letting the Leger down, have produced the winners of 10 Group events, including an Irish St Leger, a Yorkshire Cup, a Dubai Gold Cup and two Curragh Cups and you only have to cycle back to 2017 for an epic edition which was a springboard for as many as six individual Group 1 winners.
It’s true that the modern day St Leger needs Aidan O’Brien who has run 27 horses in the last eight years, a remarkable 34 per cent of the fields, but equally it tells us that Ballydoyle needs the St Leger and sees it for what it historically is, one of the great offices of the racing state.
Inevitably, this year’s race is again Coolmore coated, but the blow of Godolphin’s absence has been softened to some degree by a fascinating supplementary entry. Let’s look at the contenders.
Align the Stars
Jockey: J Fanning | Trainer: C Johnston
It was only in 2019 that the Johnston stable took silver and bronze in the St Leger with Sir Ron Priestly and Nayef Road, but Align The Stars is less accomplished and lower rated than either of those despite a summer hat-trick that raised him by 17lb to 102, still 6lb shy of the aforementioned pair pre-Doncaster, and a stone below the best of Ballydoyle in here.
Got a harsh lesson when upgraded for the Lonsdale Cup last month and hard to see how he can turn things around for a St Leger, without any advantages to be had tactically given the Ballydoyle battalion.
Align The Stars showed the improving nature
Deira Mile
Jason Watson | Owen Burrows
From which perspective do you view his fourth in the Derby? Either he was behind City Of Troy and Los Angeles, which sounds Leger level, or he was just ahead of Sayedaty Sadaty and Dancing Gemini, which sounds more listed level.
His only subsequent start in the August Stakes at Windsor didn’t tell us either way as, though 11-10 favourite, you wouldn’t judge him too harshly on failing narrowly to catch the front-runner in a tactical race on soft ground, but he was again too gassy for his own good, which is a worry for this longer trip. Has two fourths where he belongs, the former coming behind Ancient Wisdom in last year’s Futurity, but his resting rate isn’t near enough.
Euphoric
Trainer: A P O’Brien
1.9m guineas worth of pacemaker, used that way in two Derbies and a Great Voltigeur, but will there be any need for him in a race with a tearaway team-mate like Grosvenor Square?
Grosvenor Square
Trainer: A P O’Brien
His new-found formula of clearing off mid-race has really augmented his ability, maybe flattering on him but certainly empowering him and proving a pain for his rivals, taking an older stayer of the calibre of Tower Of London to chase him down in the Curragh Cup, before Grosvenor Square skipped away with the Irish St Leger Trial by 20 – yes, twenty – lengths.
His half-brother Santiago went off favourite for the 2020 St Leger when a close fourth, but he was a hold-up horse, and it’s Grosvenor Square’s front-running fire which strikes fear into the hearts of rival runners and minds of rival riders, with last weekend’s Prix du Moulin a sharp reminder of the old adage that in racing you can give away weight but not give away ground. It’s one thing to know what he’s going to do but quite another to combat it, for the opposition, akin to putting your hand in the blender, so to speak.
Illinois
Trainer: A P O’Brien
Who am I? By Galileo, I was third on my reappearance as a 3-y-o, then second in the Lingfield Derby Trial before going one better in the Queen’s Vase, after which I contested the Grand Prix de Paris and Great Voltigeur, which put me in pole position for a date with destiny in the St Leger. Illinois, yes. But it was also the productive pathway for Kew Gardens, the Leger winner of 2018 and slayer of Stradivarius the following year.
Los Angeles would probably be odds-on if he lined up at Doncaster, and his stated swerve for the Irish Champion (and Arc) is in effect a vote of confidence in Illinois who went down by just a neck by him in the Great Voltigeur, albeit receiving 2lb. Aside from Los Angeles, the only horses to have beaten Illinois over 1½m are Ambiente Friendly and Sosie, who’ll both be in Arc-assessing action on Sunday on Sky Sports Racing in the Prix Niel, and Royal Ascot back in June showed how highly effective Illinois is at the 1¾m distance. In short, Illinois is exactly what a Leger winner looks like, even a carbon-copy of one.
Los Angeles grinds out a win in the Voltigeur
Jan Brueghel
Trainer: A P O’Brien
The unbeaten horse who has looked beaten in his two Group races, pulling it out of the fire both times, by a scrambling neck, Ryan Moore instrumental in knowing him and knowing what was needed. It’s clear that the surface of his talent has been barely irritated let alone scratched, and that the longer trip on Saturday could make a big difference to him, but the fact is that rarely – if ever – do horses like him win the St Leger, far more the domain of the fully-formed galloper than the fledgling grinder. He has the tools and the ticket to transform in front of our eyes at Doncaster but if he wins then I’ll lose.
Los Angeles
Trainer: A P O’Brien
Couldn’t have looked much more like an archetypal St Leger horse as the season has gone on, and the way he won the Great Voltigeur (with plenty up his sleeve by the look of it) suggests he’d be a shoo-in on Saturday if his destination was Doncaster, but it has been stated fairly categorically that he’ll instead go to Leopardstown as a warm-up for the Arc.
Sunway will be ridden by Christopher Soumillon
Sunway
C Soumillon | D Menuisier
A brother to Sealiway, you wouldn’t have Sunway pegged on pedigree as a likely lad for a stamina-sapping St Leger, but his performances say otherwise, successful in a Group 1 over a mile on soft at two and a staying-on second in the Irish Derby, then in the King George he put in the third-fastest final furlong behind Goliath and Bluestocking; and speaking of Goliath, his rider at Ascot, Christophe Soumillon, has been booked for Doncaster by David Menuisier whose faith in Sunway has never wavered.
Illinois was beaten a neck by Los Angeles in the Voltigeur and two lengths by Sosie in the Grand Prix de Paris, while Sunway was ¾ length and 2¼ lengths off the same two in the Irish Derby and French Derby respectively, and so it’s clear that, on ability, there’s very little between Illinois and Sunway, ratified by their ratings, 116 vs 115. You have to take on trust Sunway’s stamina, but it’s hard to watch his runs and not think he’ll relish the trip, let alone stay it.
Wild Waves
D Tudhope | A M Balding
Andrew Balding has a habit of hitting the board in Classics at big prices, and Berkshire Rocco very nearly won the St Leger as an outsider in 2020 but, bringing a rating of 95 following his fourth in the Melrose, Wild Waves is way out of his pay grade here.
You Got to Me
Hector Crouch | R M Beckett
Brushing ran 10 times in the season where she went from 70-rated handicapper to the Galtres winner, as well as taking in the fillies’ St Leger, the Park Hill. You can see, therefore, where You Got To Me got her directness and durability from, like mother like daughter.
You Got To Me en route to Irish Oaks glory
She has grown up and calmed down, adding some finesse to her fire, seen to great effect in winning the Irish Oaks and running better still for second in the Yorkshire version and the miracle of Content. Ralph Beckett successfully supplemented Simple Verse into the St Leger in 2015 and also got second and third with other fillies, Talent and Look Here. You Got To Me’s courage-coated class will get her far, and her form is a match for most, factoring in the fillies’ allowance, but the heat within her makes for some rational reservations about her compatibility with long distances like the Leger.
Jamie Lynch’s verdict
The presence of the Irish Oaks winner and Irish Derby second prevent this year’s St Leger from being a pure Ballydoyle benefit, with both the supplemented You Got To Me and the stamina-stacked Sunway having the form to square up to the Aidan O’Brien squad. It’s going to be fun and games if, as is likely, Grosvenor Square opens up to put dents in the field and doubts in the mind of all of his rivals, but it’s one for all at Ballydoyle and sometimes all for one, and that one this year is ILLINOIS who couldn’t look much more like a St Leger winner if a designer drew him.